Tuesday, November 30, 2004

NYC

Gothamist

* Sniff *... I miss NYC. This is a cool blog about it though... (subscribed!)

How-To: BroadCatching using RSS & BitTorrent to automatically download TV shows

How-To: BroadCatching using RSS BitTorrent to automatically download TV shows - Engadget - www.engadget.com

Wow, this is REALLY cool. This may very well be to TV what Napster was to music. I've known how to download TV shows for some time, but the combination of ease of use here (relatively), the speed and reliability (through bittorrent) and the centralized server (through RSS) makes this quite the little killer app. Some one should still come along and slap a nice interface on the whole thing (a la napster or kazaa), but this is pretty darned good.

Thursday, November 25, 2004

Newsflash: We only hear what we want to hear

Media Often Fails to Distinguish Opinions from Facts » from All Things Considered, Tuesday, November 23, 2004

I heard about a fascinating study about our natural partisanship which extended an older study I had read about as an undergraduate. In the older study, where both sides of an issue are presented, people very strongly tend to think their side presented more accurate and compelling data. Of course this is not too surprising, given a person is likely to agree with those that confirm their internal thoughts. What makes it even more interesting is that when both sides are presented, one would think this would draw a person closer to the middle. I would have thought that seeing the other side would lead a person to understand the other side is presenting a rational point of view and this would lead to a more moderate position. This is exactly the opposite of what happens! Hearing both sides tends to reinforce the position someone already has and leads her to believe more strongly in their position.

The study covered on NPR further extends this to cable networks, where “neutral” points are presented and then the details of the study are filled in by each of the sides. However, the authors of the study were able to show that it was nearly totally irrelevant whether or not the data was present and/or how strong the data was. Instead, what you thought before or what you would feel if a particular outcome was to be the case dictated how you would feel about the incident and the data.

Needless to say, our current cable news format merely exacerbates this natural flaw in our thinking. One may say that ratings drive this… I suppose people generally enjoy hearing people yell back and forth more than anything. But even worse, the blogsphere, which is supposed to be journalism by and for the people, does not even bother with presenting the other side. It is up to the individual to seek out the other side (though I suppose it would not matter even if that individual chose to since the study says it’s unlikely that it would convince a person of the other person’s point of view). Instead, we get this vicious circle of people continuing to feed each other’s core beliefs and simply reinforcing what they already believe without even the appearance of impartiality.

My question ultimately comes down to how can we get out of this endless loop. I have dreamt that there would be some kind of actually balanced program wherein the reporter would present a set of facts and the partisans would be forced to, in some kind of cruel and unusual exercise, defend the other side’s position immediately after making her own point. However, I am not sure how this gets around the natural human behavior to believe what supports your own position and discards the opposing side’s facts. Thoughts are welcome.

D

Monday, November 22, 2004

Cool local website for traffic projects

AccessDownTown > Future Views

I stumbled across this website for my local road construction projects... actually, this is only half of the projects that affect me. The other half (in downtown Seattle) are woefully behind and poorly documented. However, I thought this was particularly cool.

Plan to move bridge

Bridge actually being moved

Especially cool that they did it just like it was planned. What an amazingly difficult project to move a fricken bridge. I know this may be the nerdiest dream ever, but I've always wanted to try my hand at traffic simulation planning on a computer. Sim City Rush Hour may do it... but I'd really like to mess around with my neighborhood and see if I can improve things. Because as commuting stands now, it is just an enormous pain in the ass.

Tuesday, November 16, 2004

israelinsider: diplomacy: Hospital concealment strengthens suspicion: Arafat died of AIDS

Hospital concealment strengthens suspicion: Arafat died of AIDS

This is absolutely terrible... the worst part about this is if this rumor is overturned, which I strongly suspect it will be, the conspiracy theorists will never let this go. And every conversation an opponent of Arafat or the Palestinians will bring this rumor up forever. I'm sure that this kind slandering the dead will go a long way to bringing about peace in the middle East.

Monday, November 15, 2004

What Wal-Mart Knows About Customers' Habits

Wal-Mart knows you and they are going to get you!

Just kidding of course, but this is a very interesting article about how much Wal-Mart knows about its different customers. I remember a direct feedback loop I heard about one time, where Wal-Mart was able to change the packaging of a certain type of Roach and Ant spray because in certain sections of the country it was socially unfavorable (like the outline of the ant was on the package or some such). I love data mining... all the answers are right there, it's up to you to dig it out. Of course, the hard part is understanding what is causation and what is causality.

John Ashcroft's thoughts on free speech

Democrats.org on John Ashcroft
"To those who pit Americans against immigrants, citizens against non-citizens, to those who scare peace-loving people with phantoms of lost liberty, my message is this: Your tactics only aid terrorists for they erode our national unity and diminish our resolve," Ashcroft told the Senate Judiciary Committee. "They give ammunition to America's enemies and pause to America's friends. They encourage people of good will to remain silent in the face of evil."

To quote Mr. Berney: "John Ashcroft: Disagreeing with the government makes you the enemy."

So very scary. Whatever happened to:

"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"

FCC makes decisions based on three people

The shocking truth about the FCC: Censorship by the tyranny of the few via Buzzmachine

Ok, I must admit when I am wrong. Now THIS is fucking journalism. I love it, and especially because it touches upon a major issue I have with the government and especially those in the government who try and dictate morals for the rest of us. Three people were enough to force the fine on Fox for Married by America. THREE. THREE!! Dammit, we need an accurate way to poll the populous so that decisions are not made simply by the number of people who decide to sit down and write a letter. And a minimum statistical bar before which any congressperson should be allowed to see that feedback so that they're not biased by a non-statistically significant sample. AND a stats 101 class for all incoming (and currently present) congresspeople. AND leaders who are elected based on their ability to look at the entire situation, evaluate and make a decision without being swayed by this crap. But most of all, we need a government who will allow people to make their own choices and if crap like this pisses them off, TURN OFF THE DAMN TV. Ugh.

Reason: A Swift Boat Kick in the Teeth: How the mainstream media grapple with partisans

Reason: A Swift Boat Kick in the Teeth: How the mainstream media grapple with partisans

My take? Really really badly. But the blogsphere is no better! In the MSM, they cover the story and do investigation of claims. But for time or space or opinion reasons, abbreviations are made and ultimately they get the partisan claims out there nearly as naked as they ever were. The blogsphere suffers the opposite problem; though they do not have time or space as constraints, writers are more naked in their own opinions, and mostly use other (similar leaning) blogs as their sources. A point I particularly agree with is the partisaness of writers who claim objectivity; they never fail to inject the worst kind of "sky-is-falling hyperbole". Even if the points are wrong, they still manage to bemoan the opponent or the messenger. It's almost too much responsibility too fast for these web authors. Oh well, give it time. With luck, the blogsphere will be able to provide what mainstream media cannot; a NON-partisan, independent look with the research to back their points. Example: there should never be a posting without checking with factcheck.org first.

Insight into the unknown

Whidbey Update by ScottGu

This is cool for any number of reasons:
  1. It's a cool product
  2. I actually know ScottGu
  3. It gives unprecedented insight into what developing an actual product looks like.
I remember thinking, before I was a release manager, how hard could it be to ship software? I mean, it's like anything else... you build it, you test it, you release it. Obviously this is wrong. One of the places that this thought is the most wrong comes from some of what Scott mentions about regressions. I'm not sure of too many other engineering disciplines where it is so common that for everything new you do, it has a fairly good chance of breaking something old you did. It's like you were building a building and constantly had to keep going down and checking the first brick you laid down.

Amazon.com: Books: The Girl in the Flammable Skirt : Stories

Sometimes I hear phrases from lyrics or literature and I'm just stunned with how accurately they capture the thought. Today's comes from the excellent: Girl in the Flammable Skirt
"For fourteen houses back, the young man held Leonard in his arms like a bride. He hoped Leonard would ask him a question, any question, but Leonard was quiet. The young man answered in his head: Son, he said, and the word rolled around, a marble on a marble floor. Son, he wanted to say."

Marble on a marble floor. Incredible imagery. I wish I could write and inspire the same feeling of awe I have right now in my readers. For now, I guess I'll have to settle for this.

If you're interested in hearing the story read aloud: Enjoy (Fourth story in, though all are good)

Marginal Revolution: Prescott on Bush's fiscal policy

Marginal Revolution: Prescott on Bush's fiscal policy

Interesting take on President Bush's financial tax cuts and the implications. I mean the guy won the Nobel, so he should know some significantly more about economics than, well, anyone! However, isn't the reason so many knowledgeable people were behind the cuts was that they would also be paired with cuts in gov't spending?

Friday, November 12, 2004

AtlanticBlog: Get a grip

AtlanticBlog: Get a grip

Atlantic Blog has an interesting list of quotes from liberals in the past week; there absolutely have been too many people bemoaning the state of the US after the election (myself among them!). In fact, the last quote by Thomas Friedman sounds VERY much like my post of last week! For shame, me, for shame! Suffice it to say I agree with William Sjostrom; people whose candidate of choice was not elected have been equating the state of the world to the apocalypse. But Mr. Friedman’s point, and Mr. Sjostrom’s response, is where the devil will be exposed in the details. Bush has been elected on the strength of his positions on Iraq and terrorism. Will he be magnanimous enough to avoid alienating the left with policies which dramatically go against their core beliefs? Roe is probably going to be the best indicator thereof. Convincing the left that Bush and the people who elected him are not in favor of "a whole different kind of America" would be an accomplishment of historic proportions.

[UPDATED] Grammar corrections

F... the South

Fuck the South

I thought I'd censor the title, but as you know I have no trouble cursing in the body. Seriously though, funny page, but come on. This is not helping anyone. How about you go and talk to someone in a red state and understand them a little bit more? I bet you could learn something. Telling them to fuck off does not really help anyone.

Cryptonomicon's take on religiousness and values

Cryptonomicon via Instapundit.com

I actually quite like Neal Stephenson and I think he's remarkably insightful in a number of things. But I have found a couple of his thoughts to be a bit off. The first was the book In the beginning there was the command line which I will summarize as because experts use something, everyone should really use that same thing as it relates to drills and operating systems because they really know what they are doing. I found the flaw to be two fold... first, everyone is not an expert and would derive no benefit from using that expert thing and two, even experts do not always use the most advanced, most powerful tool at their disposal. Experts actually tend to use the correct tool for the job.

The attached quote is an interesting one, but there's a subtlety here that I disagree with. People who are non-religious can still have a strict moral code in which they can behave, it just will not be as universal or as universally understood. Take the abortion discussion for a moment; well reasoned people can disagree with either side. If you are pro-choice, you believe that life does not begin until time x after conception. If you are pro-life, you believe that life begins at some point prior to time x after conception (x may be 0 or may, in fact, be negative if you believe in not using contreception). While you have plenty of moral relativists who might be considered fringe on one side, you have the same types of people on the other side who believe the alternative view point based solely on an external source (their priest or holy book, independent of their own thought). My problem with Mr. Stephenson's point, and Instapundit's point (by the transitive property of conclusions), is that the important component of the evaluation is not the derivation of each person's moral code, it is how many people in a given society subscribe to that same code. A person who believes in a mystical being that is all powerful, if he is the only one who believes it, is a nut job. A group of people who believe in the same is a cult. A really really big group of people who believe in the same have formed a religion. I would not say that moral relativists are without any documentation or guidance... it is just not quite as cut and dry as the Bible.

True costs of medications

The New Yorker: A couple of books on drug costs

A very interesting follow up to the point I raised a while ago about the cost of drugs. VERY interesting. Basically it concludes that medications are as high as they are not because people are gouging, it's because of the model we charge for drugs in America. Basically, we charge more up front for our drugs because the pharma's make much less on generics than they do in other countries. This further incents the pharmas to optimize their models for constantly milking the most out of existing drugs by making small modifications to existing drugs and repatenting. My favorite part about the article is that it has a very elegant market based way to improve the situation... change the buyer through educating a subset of people who would authorize the drugs available (they are called PBMs). Potentially each company would have a PBM or access to a PBM and would be able to judge the right way of treating a given illness. People would naturally be suspicious and, in my opinion, that's why the insurance industry should take steps NOW to market exactly how valuable these PBMs are. Otherwise they'll get painted by the exact same brush that doomed the HMOs in the late nineties. People need to understand that you cannot get everything for free forever. A 75 year old with heart trouble SHOULD be denied the heart over the 35 year old if she's not going to pay for it. Generics ARE as good as name brand. Until pharmas have no incentive to spend $0.5 Billion on advertising a new drug which is only 3% more effective than its previous isomer, we will be stuck in this death spiral of medical costs and limited innovation.

Thursday, November 11, 2004

Anyone can have a web page

Student Movement Coordination Committee for Democracy in Iran: "Millions of Iranians expressed their satisfaction on the outcome of the US Presidential elections and George W. Bush's victory by calling and congratulating each other. Many were seen walking in the streets and shaking each others hands or showing a discret V sign."

This is actually one of my biggest problems with bloggers. I saw this story linked to on three blogs. The blogs touted this as evidence of Bush being the right person elected. Yet I have absolutely no idea who this group is (the SMCCDI), their background, their affiliation, etc outside of what is listed on the web. Simply reporting a story which exists in the ether is not journalism!

Allow me to demonstrate:
The oil companies today vowed to outlaw all environmental policies in order to ease their drilling in formerly wildlife protected areas. When asked if this would negatively affect generations to come, a representative replied, “We have access to all your computers and will delete your hard drives if you do not allow us to do what we want. See!” (Note, only works on a PC)
There you go, a brand new quote from the oil company representative. Is it real? Of course not. Do you know anything about me or my rationale for saying this? Nope. Could you link to it and claim x or y or z? Sure, but that’s not journalism! I’m not saying journalists cannot be bloggers, but journalism is more than just a link and a comment (it goes without saying that I am not a journalist either… does this mean you should not believe what I say? Probably.)

CJR November/December 2004: Blinded by Science

CJR November/December 2004: Blinded by Science

In contrast to my point about always attempting to show a balanced point of view, this article actually argues for eliminating the contradictory position. Well, that may be a bit broad, but the point is very well taken. Reporters responsibility (and bloggers, I'm talking to you too) SHOULD reflect reality, not equivalent representation of unfounded theory. Global Warming is happening. Abortions do not cause breast cancer. Evolution is real. Antibiotics do not "cause" autism (remind me to get into THAT doozy later). The balancing of these articles ultimately detracts from their value because you're applying equal weight to both sides when in fact the two sides are not evenly weighted by the people who know. If you have a thousand word piece and 200 words are dedicated to the pro side and 200 words are dedicated to the con side, I don't care if the 200 pro side words include the phrases "Everyone one in the world believes that" or "thousands upon thousands of people have personally confirmed" and/or the con side says "only a moron would believe that" and so on, from the reader's point of view you've done a lot more to paint an equal picture than not. The fact that the media does a poor job of identifying connections between organizations and supposedly independent sides does not help. Both add up to the fact that you're not reflecting reality, which ultimately hurts your readership and your creditability a lot more than being painted as being "biased" would.

Google Index Doubles

Google Blog: "That's why we keep building more advanced systems for crawling the web and creating more sophisticated indices to sort what we find. So 8 billion pages is a milestone worth noting, but it's not the end of the road. The real test is how well we do in finding what you want from within those pages. We'll keep improving that too. "

I was all set to blog about this until I got to this last line. This philosophy makes me smile more than anything else he said. Computer programs are so often engineered for unlimited flexibility with thousands of options. But, exactly as you see here, people do not want thousands of options, they want one; the one that they are looking for. Designing products to always offer that one option that people want would be fantastic, no matter how many widgets and features the product has. If they're looking at a window with a thousand buttons, the users are probably going to be a lot less happy than if they're looking at a window with two. I know that's a fairly simplistic way of looking at things, but it captures a thought process that a lot of designers would be right to heed. Of course knowing what that one right thing is key... and that's what Google has done so well here. People go to a search engine; they want to find something. Pretty cool.

EA working it's people long hours in a crunch

EA working it's people long hours in a crunch

As an employee of a software company, I've seen this happen countless times. It never fails. I'm not exactly sure how people who build bridges or buildings or refinish kitchens do not have this trouble, but they do not. Maybe they slip, or maybe they have 2000 years of doing work to fall back on knowing exactly what will take how long. To the author, let me assure you that no company WANTS to work its people this way and software managers around the world work at getting the schedule right so that this does not have to happen. But software development of this scale is unfortunately still very new and when we get to the point in software development that we no longer have to reinvent the rivet every time we start a new project, we'll be better. But we're not there now and I'm not sure how soon we will be.

Wednesday, November 10, 2004

Entrepreneurs like Bush

Small Business Trends: Entrepreneurship, Rural America, and Elections

Um this is a stretch. No it's more than a stretch... it's Elastagirl.

Here's the entrepreneur map of America:



and here's the voter county by county trends (USA today source I think):




The theory is that rural America is a big fan of Bush because it:
has a certain blend of economic and personal self-sustainability to which the Republican message appeals particularly.
Ok, I will grant you the following potentially logical fallacies which this theory seems to forward:
  1. Farmers are not considered self-employed and/or farmers are not only located in rural areas because that is an area of the country in which they can actually do their trade
  2. All counties have equal population density and therefore large red areas have more people than small blue areas
  3. All people in the Republican areas are entirely Republicans (and vice versa) OR
    All Democrats in the Republican areas were not self-employed (and vice versa)
  4. All Red areas are equivalently red, all green areas are equivalently green and all yellow areas are equivalently yellow.
  5. Success rate of these entrepreneurs in all areas is the same
Even with all that, I do not think the conclusion the author puts forward is accurate! She basically takes a rough look at the map and makes her decision. Maybe I should not be so critical about a fairly straightforward page, but stuff like this really has a life of its own... no one ever knows how broadly it gets published.

More fun with statistics

Tim Worstall: Tim Lambert, Glenn Reynolds and Bookselling.

I thought this was a kind of cool analysis. First, I'm surprised at the consistent level of conspiracy theory that seems to permeate the blogsphere. People need to have a better understanding of coincidence and how common things are before they go nuts on how x or y is out to get me/my affiliated party/my group/etc.

Second, if it’s true, there could be any number of reasons that left wing books get more display time than right wing books: it goes in cycles, and this is a left wing cycle; they actually get the exact same amount of display and you only notice the left wing books because you do not like them as much and you have a higher emotional reaction to them, thereby improving your memory that a left wing book was displayed; left wing people are more likely to be defacers and would damage the books displayed if they were right wing; and so on. My take is because I think that publishers think that left leaning people are more likely to buy books and so are willing to pay the money to get them slotted. But that’s just my take. My real problem with this whole line of discussion is that they’ve taken a single example (someone’s observation about their book store), combined it with a fake posting and a conspiracy theory has been created. I do not even think it is accurate; wasn't Unfit for Command at the top of the NY Times Best Seller list for a number of weeks?

For all the touting that the various blog folks do about how in depth and thorough the blogsphere is, bloggers seem to forget to know anything about basic statistics and research. Maybe this is a more general human phenomenon and it is simply exhibited extremely well here. Either way, two web pages does not a conspiracy make.

This just in... poo is a funny word

The Prime Number Shitting Bear

What's wrong with me that I go back to this page and find it funny every time?

Fun With Prime Numbers

Fun With Prime Numbers

This just in, prime numbers are cool.

You know what solution I'm really looking for? I want to store something like this somewhere so that I can find it at some future date, page through it for interest, and then file it away again. I'll never actually NEED this link or, if I did, I'd probably only stumble across it in google. What I really want is something where I could just say, "have I seen anything that relates to prime numbers?" and boom, everything I've ever seen will pop up. I'm going to have to say this is a pretty unrealistic want for quite a while. On the other hand, if search engines get good enough, you could simply say "Hey , is there anything I should have seen related to prime numbers?" Now THAT would be cool.

Kong is King.net | King Kong | Peter Jackson's Production Diary

Kong is King.net | King Kong | Peter Jackson's Production Diary

Funny thing about videoblogs (and photo blogs to a lesser degree). Much as it feels out of sorts to see the face of a person who you've heard for years on the radio, or shake the hand of a person you've only seen in pictures, video blogging feels totally weird and does not seem (to me) to lend itself to the medium very well. I remember I used to be fairly active in a set of chat rooms and at one point we discovered Internet Telephony for free (this was a while ago). So we all started calling each other. I could not have less to say to people if I had pulled them in off the street, despite rambling on at the keyboard to the very same people for hours on end. Sometimes your mind gets in a certain form of interaction with another person or group and that's how you picture them forever.

Blogging is great because I can do a thousand different things at once, I can read two other stories to verify my point, do spel checking on the fly, correct grammar, edit flow, you name it. Virtually none of that is possible through video blogging if we want to have the same kind of wild west open environment that we have today. I definitely think quality would suffer and I'm not sure people would be willing to sacrifice that for seeing 2x2 inch pictures of video clips. Who knows though, I might have said the same thing about tv 50 years ago.

Roger L. Simon: How Duranty Happened

Roger L. Simon: How Duranty Happened

As it is my custom, I'm continuing to comment on stories weeks after they happen. The above piece by Mr. Simon says that the Al Qaaqa missing weapons story is on the level of Mr. Duranty, the NY Times reporter, white washing Stalin and still winning a pullitzer prize. There used to be a great Usenet (yes Usenet, that thing before chat rooms and forums) saying (Goodwin's law for the curious) that the first person to mention Hitler in an argument automatically loses. The law captures a wonderful microcosm representation of human discussions. Any given discussion will continue until one compares the other side to the most evil thing known to fully demonize the other side. To bring it back to this story, let's say that what Mr. Simon says is exactly accurate... does this really equate to painting someone who is killing millions of people as a good guy? This may be a bit of an exaggeration.

The other interesting point about the above discussion is how intensely opposed to the main stream media these people are because they perceive bias in what the reporters are saying. A person has the ability to see bias in EVERYTHING and the more partisan he is, the more likely he will be able to see it. Beyond that, bloggers LOVE to tout the main stream media is dead and that blogs are the wave of the future. This has echos of 5 years ago, when people said priceline deserved to be worth more than all the airlines combined, webvan would revolutionize groceries for everyone everywhere and the front page of AOL was more valuable than all the networks, movies and radio stations put together. Look, I do not deny blogging adds a facet to the media that was not present before, but I have yet to see a story that was truly generated out of blogging, rather than just reacted to by the bloggers. I fully admit I have a limited view of the blogsphere (as everyone must, given it's size and a human's bandwidth) but this is just an aspect to the media... it's not the alpha and the omega. Please people, use perspective!

Tuesday, November 09, 2004

How quick was the media in breaking the missing explosives story?

How quick was the media in breaking the missing explosives story? - Instapundit.com

Interesting pre-election story from Instapundit about some data that may have shown the explosives ACTUALLY went missing last year and the government only told us all about it now. But Ms. Althouse goes on to rail against the media and the fact that they may or may not be showing Kerry leanings.

I'm always fascinating with bias of this sort. In this case in particular, Ms. Althouse has three pieces of information that the story was not held to time against Bush in the later part of the election (the LA times story and, I'm assuming, both the CBS and NY Times who will certainly say they did not hold it). Regardless, Ms. Althouse takes away from these pieces of information and the timing of the story that the media groups MAY have in fact held it to hurt Bush. In fact she uses roughly half of the article to expound on this possible behavior and the journalistic code of ethics (if any). How can she conclude this? I am assuming it's just the timing of everything that made her decision for her, but this is a logical fallacy we all get into way too often; just because someone benefits from an event does not mean they had a cause in the event itself. For people on the other side, it parallels with "The oil companies orchestrated 9/11; look at how it's given them all this money!" Just as wrong. As far as her point is concerned, if there's any question of who showed obvious bias here, I'd have to say it was Ms. Althouse.

ROCKET PUNCH! - Engadget - www.engadget.com

ROCKET PUNCH! - Engadget - www.engadget.com




I'm not sure, but I don't think this will quite be the offensive weapon they're looking for. Extra points if you can name the cartoon on which this is based.

Well tie me up, throw me in a prison with a little dress on and call me Shirley.

Some Rather-isms Dan Rather has some of the most colorful colloquialisms ever... I still remember his call of the 2000 election where it would be "Shakespearian" if Gore lost TN (he did). My thought about this blog is why do they consider NPR liberal? I'm not trying to stir up anything, but they never have a piece on without both sides of the discussion... and I do not care if they're talking about whether or not the Earth is round, they always have SOMEBODY in there who thinks the other side. Isn't that balanced? How should they be less "liberal"?

INCITE: The Carnival of the Capitalists

INCITE: The Carnival of the Capitalists I was going to go on a big rant about how blogging may or may not be journalism, and I still may, but I was particularly pleased with the posting at INCITE today... it's an interesting look around the blogsphere at a whole set of issues addressed with an economic/capitalist eye. They're a bit on the free market side for my taste (though I'm a huge fan of free markets, I have recently started backing off totally unregulated behavior because the free markets are corrupted by the exceptional marketing of the participants), it's a great look at some very smart people. Enjoy!

Monday, November 08, 2004

One small follow up

As a follow up to the last post, I'm kind of curious about the following equation:

Largely disagree with Bush + Largely don't know/understand Kerry's positions = Vote for Bush?

This American Life had a great piece right before the election on something like this... you do not agree with a given candidate on nearly everything, but at least you know where he stands, so you vote for the one you understand. Love to understand this more...
D

I want your vote

Open Letter To The Democratic Party: How You Could Have Had My Vote

What a wonderful essay. This goes to forward my friend's comment about how close the two sides are and further exhibits my naiveté. The most interesting thing for me is that I totally agree with her on nearly every point, and I came down to being a Kerry supporter. For the points we don’t agree on, allow me to elucidate:

  • I make a lot of money… a lot more than her anyway. Yet, I would be more than willing to give up some of it to the government to get other people off of poverty or help the middle class. I did not see Kerry’s view as demonization… just pandering to the majority, which is not necessarily a bad thing.
  • I do not view terrorism as a major concern. It’s like being concerned about a meteor strike. Yep, it could happen. Yep, if we spent enormous amounts of money we MIGHT stop it. But the organizations were already in place to stop it (and did) before 9/11. And now that 9/11 has happened, we’ll be that much more sensitive to it. But ultimately, I look at countries like the England, Israel and Spain, who have had to deal with far more attacks for a far longer time and I see more logic in the way their government works than we are showing. Basically, I think we need to make sure our internal forces (FBI, police, etc) are strong and well-funded, and then put it out of our mind.
  • Without terrorism, the environment and science become my two biggest issues. This is not really a point of difference; more a prioritization difference. Nontheless, I had to go with a candidate who supported my positions on these two issues more closely.

If it’s any help, I want your vote for candidates who support my issues first and foremost. I want it in 2006 and 2008 and 2010 and every election thereafter. Help me understand how to make you happy to give it to me.

D

Election result maps

Election result maps I guess I'm wrong. We're not living in a red, blue or purple country. We're living in a freaky misshapen country which is slowly growing and taking over everything it sees. Run!

I got in an interesting discussion last week about my comments about the election. I'm paraphrasing here, but the person who disagreed felt like I was exacerbating small differences between the two halves of the electorate. This could very much be the case. Also, I do not want, in any way, for my comments to say that I think I'm smarter than the people who voted the other way. Not at all! I don't, and I do not think ANYONE will, know the rationale for people voting the way they did for some time if ever. Yes, "moral values" were highlighted by the polls, but so were terrorism, Iraq and so on, and no one trusts the exit polls anyway.

If there was one thing that this election continued to highlight for me, it is that we live in an irrational country. I do my best to follow reason, but time and again I see the vast majority of people choosing to behave irrationally (some would say emotionally). People probably chose on this election based on terrorism and Iraq as much as anything, yet these are hardly the most concerning issues of our time (I would say heart disease and/or cancer would be greater threats by orders of magnitude). Yesterday, I wandered through the auto show in Seattle, and you have these enormous trucks for people who never use them. "But my grandmother flies in once a year and we need the extra room to drive her around!" God forbid you rent a car that one week. Marketing certainly helps push us in this direction, be it election or not, but we can all do a lot better. I wonder what long term effect this will have on market forces and the ability to predict market forces? Since irrationality is non-quantifiable, how do you evaluate a population’s ability to do trade offs?

Friday, November 05, 2004

Nyx: Get your flexible display jacket on - Engadget - www.engadget.com

Nyx: Get your flexible display jacket on - Engadget - www.engadget.com


If you have something to say that is so important that you have to get it out on your jacket, YOU HAVE TOO FUCKING MUCH TO SAY.

"Wait, wait let me type a message in witty response to your comment ... hold on... ok, let me turn around and get set... no stand there I'll turn... don't move or else you won't be able to see it... There. Booya, you got served!"

Thursday, November 04, 2004

Peggy Noonan on how the mainstream media lost

OpinionJournal - Peggy Noonan Well, she's a Republican, so I guess I should default to simply disagreeing with her on the issues. But, in fact, I much more disagree with the conclusions she comes to.

First, though Bush's win was substantial, he also had more people vote for his opponent than had ever voted for a candidate in history as well. Any country where 49% of the people do not think you are the candidate who should win seems pretty deeply divided to me.

Second, as much as people love to paint the mainstream media as biased and wrong as many times as they were right, this is just a statistical aberration. Bloggers very rarely generated stories on their own; it was much more facilitating the quick transit of information and allowed the many eyes of the readers to do the deep analysis that reporters are normally responsible for. Second, the CBS memos were wrong, but how many times was CBS right? Being wrong 1% out of all the stories covered is not bad... it's probably not even new. People have been wrong since newspapers began; it's just now we have a thousand fact checkers at the ready. I absolutely believe the mainstream media will have to change to accommodate the phenomenon of having fact checkers at the ready but there's an inherent fallacy here that I do not think people who think that the mainstream media are doomed really understand. Does Ms. Noonan really think that at any time the press put on a story that they thought was false and expected it to pass? Does she think that people held stories for any reason other than for maximum publicity? There’s a sense of malice here that Ms. Noonan attributes to these news organizations that I do not think exists. It is this attribution of malice (or greed or stupidity or any number of other things people think their counterparts on the other side subscribe to) which is probably the biggest cause of the partisanship we live in today. Trust me; the other person is fairly rational; your demonizing them does not solve anything.

Welcome to the Purple-ish USA

Purple-USA Actually, I kind of like this. This says a lot... we're divided, but even in the redest of red states, it's still bluish, and vice versa. Except for Utah, I suppose. Wow, that's a red state.

[Updated: Grammar correction.]

Technorati: Top 100

Technorati: Top 100 I suppose it might be nice to be on here. But would that change this from a random set of thoughts to something that I would spend my full day doing?

Measuring the "Howard Stern Effect" - FrankLog

Measuring the "Howard Stern Effect" - FrankLog Somehow I doubt that this works. The summary is that Howard Stern actually caused voters to go to Bush due to his comments against the administration. In a shocking surprise, this is a great example of people not understanding statistics. Because there was no control group and because no one held all other variables stationary, you can't actually do this kind of analysis. Especially since Bush's numbers were up EVERYWHERE which means you could draw the exact same conclusions about states where he was not on the radio. Interesting numbers about voter turn out though...

Ballmer: We need a $100 PC

Ballmer: We need a $100 PC | Tech News on ZDNet Is it possible? Um, since I now have more power in my cell phone than launched the Apollo space craft, I'm going to have to say yes.

Post election sadness

Well the election results are in, and for those of you who have been in a cave on Mars with your fingers in your ears singing “la-la-la”, Bush won with a large margin in both the electoral and the popular vote (which is nicer than last time).

However, I find myself just very very sad about the whole thing. Though you might think my mood is dour about the supreme court justices who are going to be appointed (I believe the trend towards injecting religious morality into law is a mistake), to the damage to the environment which will be caused (Bush is someone who will trade the health of the environment for jobs and business) to the massive fiscal deficits we’ll have when they finish their term, I actually think these are sub-components of my sadness.

The thing I’m the most sad about is that I now live in a country where it is very obvious that I am not only am I in the minority, but 51% of the people who vote here have a significantly different view of what America should be and how a citizen should behave. I do not denounce their views at all; as I have tried to say many times on this blog, people have every right to their opinions and ways that they want to live. The thing that is the most unsettling to me is, if I understand their points of view correctly, they believe their ways of living should be enforced by the government both here and abroad. Gay marriage, abortion, foreign policy, etc all seem to be guided by a thought that “I believe this way so you should believe this way too” which ultimately does not lead to peace, it leads to war. Anyhow, it’s a startling revelation that so much of the country does not agree with one of my core beliefs and this election clearly said to me that it was not because the majority of people were duped, or did not decide to vote or they were disenfranchised, it is because they actually believe that. I’m not one of those “fine, America, you got what you wanted, now choke on it” people (of which the blogsphere is packed); I think 51% of this country is going to get exactly what they wanted and they are going to really enjoy the next four years. What I’m worried about is how that will affect the next 40.


D

Monday, November 01, 2004

The New York Times > Washington > Campaign 2004 > Rebuffing G.O.P., 2 Judges Bar Challengers at Polls in Ohio

Rebuffing G.O.P., 2 Judges Bar Challengers at Polls in Ohio Looks like the judges felt it was also unfair. There is one thing that I find particularly disgusting about the election process this year is the non-stop effort to try and STOP people from voting. That people would undertake efforts where one possible outcome may be reducing people voting is the lowest form of participation. I invite you to listen to this story on This American Life... but be aware, as the show says, you will be screaming at the radio at least some point while listening.

Other examples are here: eRiposte and dKosopedia

Look, I'm all for making sure only people who are registered can vote, but these people have to be some of the lowest form of human life. What could be going through their head... even if they did nothing but enforce the law as written, they MUST know that at least a side effect of their actions would be the delaying or prevention of voting by people who do not have an entire day to take off. Is your candidate winning really worth stopping the most fundamental aspect of our democracy?

I always try and be as non-partisan as I can about this stuff but can you show me the Democrats who are breaking the law with the number and scope of people affected as these Republican leaning organizations? I suppose there are gray areas like the Jeb Bush fiasco where he has removed 23,000 black felons but left 23,000 hispanic felons (who tend to lean Republican) on the voter lists, but tearing up hundreds of registrations is about as black and white as you can get. You cannot compare people registering fake people for crack with preventing people who have a right to vote from voting. What is wrong with you people?