The Iron Yuppie

What Happens Once the Oil Runs Out? via John Robb's Weblog

What a really interesting article about oil production. Mr. Deffeyes (who knows more about oil production than nearly anyone) predicts Hubbert's peak around late 2006. Even drilling in ANWR (which is predicted to be half the size of the Prudhoe Bay field) will not stop the decline, especially in that even if they start drilling today, it will not pay off for another four years. My primary question is not around what we will drive when oil becomes too expensive to power cars; I feel like the auto industry is already on a path to develop non petroleum-based vehicles, and the increase in the price of oil will only speed that process. The data I do not have is how much oil substitution can occur for non-vehicle uses and what the state of those industries will be. We use plastic for everything, and I am not sure there's a great replacement for oil in its production.

According to this article at the Cato Institute:

Energy Disinformation: "Transportation accounts for 67 percent of petroleum use, but only 27 percent of total energy use. The other third of each barrel of petroleum goes to produce plastics, synthetic fibers, pesticides and fertilizer, fueling farm machinery, generating some electricity and heating some homes. "

They did not list a source, so let's just assume that ~50% of oil is for transportation and ~50% for other uses. Even if we dropped oil for transportation usage to zero instantly, that only doubles the amount of time we have left with oil... it does not extend it forever. I hope the oil industries are smart enough to keep investing in research for when the day comes that the tap runs dry.